You don't save enough by replacing your pay TV subscription with over-the-top services to justify the loss of available content. That was the conclusion put forth Thursday by Barclays media analyst Anthony DiClemente, as he broke down the value proposition for litigation-challenged start-up Aereo for investors.

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In his report, DiClemente cast long odds for Aereo, the cloud-based programming service funded by media mogul Barry Diller, which seeks to stream broadcast TV channels with a DVR interface to tablets, notebooks and over-the-top boxes for $12 a month.